FLASH 27: Bush's "Second Stage" of War Poses Risks of Conflict from Yemen to Uzbekistan

by Peter Dale Scott

(3/12/02)

By putting US troops to Yemen and Georgia as well as Iraq, President Bush is giving conspicuous implementation to his speech on March 11 about a "second stage of the war on terror." It is possible, as he clearly hopes, that someday historians will approve this bold new step into the untried fields of unilateralism. But there are also risks involved, risks that he did not address in his speech.

In the case of Yemen, the President said only that "We will help Yemeni forces with both training and equipment to prevent that land from becoming a haven for terrorists."

But it is the prediction of Stratfor.com (3/11/02) that this U.S. deployment may trigger attacks: "The United States plans to deploy up to 100 soldiers to Yemen to train local security forces and assist in Yemen's hunt for al Qaeda. But strong opposition to the presence of U.S. forces in the country remains, and the mission may trigger a surge in attacks against U.S. assets and personnel....

"Yemen, located on the tip of the Arabian Peninsula, is considered a likely refuge for al Qaeda fighters fleeing Afghanistan, and the U.S. mission is designed to deny them sanctuary there. However, opposition to a U.S. military presence remains high, even among members of the government. President Ali Abdallah Salih's decision to permit greater U.S. involvement in domestic military operations may prompt opponents to resort to violence against U.S. assets and personnel in the coming months....

"Yemen is more like the Wild West than a modern, industrial society. Firefights in the capital are common, much of the population carries weapons, arms smugglers and drug traffickers transit Yemen unmolested and the country serves as a networking base for militant groups from throughout the Middle East."

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